Coking coal price continues to rise and sales are booming, with frequent "cars and other coal" phenomenon

In August, the power coal price is gradually returning to rationality, but the coking coal price continues to rise.

 

Last week, the coke enterprises just implemented the sixth round of adjustment. Yesterday, the coke enterprises raised the coke price again. However, the industry believes that the coke price has not reached the top due to the good support from upstream and downstream. At the same time, the shutdown of Shanxi coal mine leads to the decrease of supply, and the phenomenon of "cars and other coal" is frequent in coal mine sales. In addition, the continuous increase of coking coal price is also due to the high profits of the steel plant, the steel price has reached a new high in the past five years, and the price increase of all links in the coal coke steel industry chain has been started.

 

Yesterday, due to the news that the leading coke enterprises in Hebei plan to increase, most coke enterprises across the country, except for the southwest, increased one after another, and the increase was as high as 100 yuan per ton.

In fact, the coke market just implemented the sixth round of increase last week. As the previous two increases of 80 yuan / ton are relatively large compared with the previous ones, the market has been digesting the previous increase in recent days, but yesterday's new round of increase was a little sudden and the increase was even more unexpected.

 

Good support from upstream and downstream is still available, while market speculation is like "oil". In the continuously rising market, "adding fuel to the fire" will inevitably cause the coke market to burn more and more vigorously. At present, the seventh round of inflation can be said to have been set, so the eighth round of inflation will not be too far. According to the data monitored by Zhongyu information, the national pig iron output in July was 62.07 million tons, up 5.1% year-on-year; the crude steel output in July was 74.02 million tons, up 10.3% year-on-year; the coke output in July was 37.28 million tons, up 0.1% year-on-year. At the same time, this year, the national development and Reform Commission and the General Administration of customs have introduced restrictions on the import of inferior coal. The import volume of coking coal has dropped a lot year on year, which also has a certain contraction in supply.

 

From the perspective of monthly coking coal import quantity, since May 2017, the year-on-year decline is very large, with very obvious effect. When the import restriction has not been implemented in April, the year-on-year growth was 58%, while the year-on-year growth in May and June was 5.45% and - 0.36%, respectively. It should be mentioned that due to the impact of the accident of Lushun Lvxin coal mine, at present, the subordinate coal mines of Lushun County, except Lu'an and Yangmei group, can be produced normally, and all the coal mines in other places have been shut down, and the open-pit coal mines in other areas of Jinzhong have also received the notice of shut down inspection. In addition, the open pit mine in Luliang area has also received the notice of suspension inspection.

 

It should be noted that in addition to the impact of reduced supply, the continuous rise in coking coal prices is mainly due to the high profits of steel mills, leading to the desire of the upstream to redistribute profits. However, at present, the operation rate of downstream steel plants is relatively high, and the supply of coke is slightly insufficient, which also provides strong support for the rise of coking coal.