Rapid increase of steel stock iron ore stock has eased recovery

On August 1, Shanghai Steel Federation released the steel inventory data of this week. This week, the total steel stock (social stock + factory stock) rose by 352200 tons. In terms of social inventory, this week's screw steel warehouse increased by 161700 tons, 2.62% on a month on month basis; wire rod warehouse increased by 35000 tons, 2.09% on a month on month basis; hot coil warehouse increased by 83600 tons, 3.34% on a month on month basis; cold coil warehouse decreased by 6000 tons, 0.53% on a month on month basis; medium and heavy plate warehouse increased by 25700 tons, 2.43% on a month on month basis. In terms of steel plant inventory, the inventory of screw steel, wire rod, hot coil, cold coil and medium and heavy plate is + 100900 tons, - 12400 tons, - 19500 tons, - 35000 tons and - 13300 tons respectively. On August 1, Shanghai Iron and Steel Federation released this week's iron ore port inventory data. This week, the port inventory was 118.69 million tons, an increase of 2.27 million tons on a month on month basis, and the average daily port evacuation volume was 2.62 million tons / day, down 245000 tons / day on a month on month basis.

 

Continuous high screw steel production and rapid accumulation of inventory in the off-season of consumption

 

According to the statistics of Shanghai Steel Federation, the average daily output of screw steel in the national building materials steel works this week was 3.7799 million tons / day, an increase of 22400 tons / day on a month on month basis. Since May, the daily average output of screw steel has been kept between 3.70-3.83 million tons / day. Since June, due to the high temperature and rainy weather in the south, the downstream demand has been weakened correspondingly. Secondly, according to the daily average volume counted by Shanghai Steel Union, with the arrival of Meiyu season, the daily average volume of steel has slowed down. In July, the daily average volume of steel is only 183800 tons (including 215500 tons, 197200 tons and 191500 tons in April, may and June, respectively). Tons). The high steel output and the gradual slowdown of downstream demand are the key reasons for the rapid accumulation of social steel inventory in the early stage.

 

Iron ore shipments in Australia and Brazil gradually recovered and port inventory rebounded

 

Since the dam break in vale in early February, the total iron ore shipments in Australia and Brazil have declined rapidly (the average weekly iron ore shipments in Australia and Brazil in March and April were 18.66 million tons / week and 19 million tons / week respectively). However, since May, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Pakistan have rebounded significantly (in May and June, the average weekly shipments from Australia and Pakistan were 22.79 million tons / week and 23.35 million tons / week respectively). In the early stage, the iron ore in transit arrived at the port one after another, which alleviated the supply and demand of domestic port iron ore inventory. In terms of port dredging, affected by the policy of Caofeidian port banning iron ore port dredging, the average port dredging volume on Sunday fell by 250000 tons / day on a month on month basis. The rapid decline of in transit iron ore in succession + port dredging led to the rapid recovery of iron ore port inventory this week.